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Challenge #01 - Find the Safe Scroll

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(08/06) Al Shawa : I will not change the scroll because thee scrolls are 66% chance to explode.... if one scroll is exploding then shikamaru and i only have 50% chance to have an explosion scroller.... i definately not switch the scroller to shikamaru the un-lucky =P. [NOTE: i would or not have to switch my scroll because i have 50% chance to be alive.... it depends on my luck.] ps. of course i will still use "Kawarimi no Jutsu" to avoid any trouble =P
Shika: Wrong again!

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(08/06) Annonymous : Ok, first, I'll describe the primary situation :

We have 3 scrolls, 2 of them containing explosive tags. This leads to the
following probabilities if we were to pick one of the three :

{Pouf!} = 2/3
{Ouf!} = 1/3

After we pick one scroll, Shikamaru opens another one and Pouf!, changing
the probabilities if we were to pick one of the two :

{Pouf!} = 1/2
{Ouf!} = 1/2

What happened :

- {Pouf!} decreased by 1/6
- {Ouf!} incresead by 1/6

When we picked the scroll we currently have, it had a prob of 1/3 of being
safe and 2/3 of containing explosive tags.

The remaining scroll have a prob greater by 1/6 than the other of being safe
and a prob lesser by 1/6 than the other of containing explosive tags.

Conclusion : We should switch scrolls.

To simplify things : When we first picked a scroll, we had more chance of
getting a bad one (2/3). We could say we "probably" picked a bad one, and
the good one "probably" remained there. Shika revealed a bad one, thus
"probably" leaving the good one.

Again, Warbringer.

Shika: You're still not anything. I'll give you some effort points for the trouble though.

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(09/06) Griff Aloni: ive done some thinking. I ever tried to recall some stuff i actually learned in math but came to no conclustion. So im gunna stick with logic. It doesnt matter if you switch or not. Either way, there is no way you can know which is the explosive. But no, i wont switch because shik is just trying to make you think more then you have to in order to convince yourself into switching which will be the explosive. I think the one i took is the non explosive.
Shika: Still going with the instinct thing?? Told you no. Next!

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